According to the Gartner 2019 Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies the blockchain is sliding into the so called "Through of Disillusionment," and as such the technology will only advance to allow for uniquely supported use cases by 2021.
The Through of Disillusionment is the point where interest in a technology wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver.
“Blockchain technologies have not yet lived up to the hype and most enterprise blockchain projects are stuck in experimentation mode,” the analyst says. “Blockchain is not yet enabling a digital business revolution across business ecosystems and may not until at least 2028, when Gartner expects blockchain to become fully scalable technically and operationally.”
To hit the mainstream, blockchain technology needs to ensure users do not have to worry about picking the right platform, the right smart contract, the right system interfaces and the right consensus algorithms. In addition, it needs to rectify concerns as to how users interoperate with partners using different blockchain platforms.
Gartner predicts blockchain platforms will become scalable, interoperable and able to support smart contract portability and cross chain functionality by 2023. They should also support trusted private transactions with the required data confidentiality, bringing the industry closer to a mainstream blockchain and the decentralised web, aka Web 3.0.
“Over time, permissioned blockchains will integrate with public blockchains, and will take advantage of shared services while supporting the membership, governance and operating model requirements of permissioned blockchains,” the analyst concludes.
