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DRAMeXchange: SSDs Soon to Reach HDD Prices

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According to DRAMeXchange the Q4 2015 average contract price of mainstream PC-Client OEM SSDs is down by 10-11% Y-o-Y-- marking a 4th consecutive quarter of SSD price declines exceeding 10%.

SSDThus, the analyst predicts 256GB SSDs will be "close to price parity" with mainstream HDDs in 2016, bringing about an increase of over 30% (an industry first) in notebook SSD adoption.

Global notebook shipments total 43.3 million with 13% growth in Q3 2015-- initially impressive numbers until one points out the shorter Q2 2015 base period. Meanwhile channel distributors proved conservative in Q3 2015 restocking efforts due to expectations of lower NAND flash prices, bringing about just a slight increase in total retail SSD shipments and a notebook SSD adoption rate of 24-25%.

Client-SSD shipments in the same period (include the retail SSD market) totals 21.6m units.

As for Q4 2015, DRAMeXchange expects notebook SSD adoption rates reaching 27-28%, since ongoing inventory adjustments will constrain quarterly notebook shipment growth despite MacBook and Intel Skylake-powered notebook sales growth. Declining NAND pricing and aggressive pricing will cause Q4 2015 seasonal pattern deviation in retail SSD shipments, leading to slight 4-6% growth.

"To consume more capacity and gain market share, NAND Flash suppliers will maintain their aggressive pricing strategy into H1 2016," the analyst concludes.

When it comes to vendors Samsung will use price advantages to acquire more PC-OEM market share, even as SanDisk mass produces TLC-SSD and DRAM-less products. In the meantime other SSD makers are rolling out 15nm/16nm-based MLC Flash products in response to aggressive NAND Flash pricing.

Go TrendForce Says SSD Adoption by Notebooks May Hit 30% Next Year as Contract Price of Mainstream SSDs Fell